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The bitcoin sell-off could get worse before it gets better, according to analysts who look only at price charts. The downtrend intensified on Wednesday when it tumbled under the $60,000 level for the first time since February, as stubborn inflation and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy kept markets under pressure. That was a key support level for bitcoin, representing the approximate convergence of the March low and 100-day moving average, according to Ari Wald, an analyst at Oppenheimer. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said $60,000 bitcoin looks "vulnerable" and that $50,000 could be in play. Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $74,000 since mid-March, when the cryptocurrency reached new records and has failed multiple times to break out.
Persons: Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, It's, bitcoin, David Keller, Wald, Keller, Geoff Kendrick, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, , Michael Bloom, Rob Ginsberg's Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S
Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients late Tuesday that the recent bounces for the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 look suspiciously like "bear flags," an ominous chart pattern. "Equities ended the month on a sour note, as last week's dead cat bounces stalled out beneath resistance. A "bear flag" is a technical pattern that sometimes develops during short-term bounces in a broader market decline. Last week, the S & P 500 rose 2.7%, its best weekly performance since November. Ginsberg said in the note that he sees potential downside to the 4,800 level on the S & P 500, which would equal a further decline of about 4.5%.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, doesn't, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq
Investors should look to energy stocks as stubborn inflation weighs on the stock market amid growing anxiety over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at all this year, according to Wolfe Research. "This inability to adequately tame inflation of course coincides with the reacceleration of Oil and Energy stocks over the past few months," analysts Rob Ginsberg and Read Harvey told clients in a Monday note. The Wolfe analysts said investors should take advantage of any near-term overbought consolidations and make a play for the stock to rise back into the mid $40s. Crude oil and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, meanwhile, are both on the upswing from multiyear bases, according to the Wolfe analysts. "Needless to say, we want to keep playing Oil and Energy stocks to the upside over near – mid term, which should in turn put continued upward pressure on inflation," the Wolfe analysts said.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Read Harvey, Ginsberg, Harvey, Halliburton, EQT, Wolfe, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wolfe Research, Oil, Energy, Halliburton, EQT Corporation, HAL, Securities Locations:
"Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its inability to successfully get through that stubborn $70k resistance level," Wolfe's Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. "It reminds us of another group that has been unable to overcome its own resistance level ... small caps," he continued. Now, bitcoin has retested its highs while small caps have barely proved they can stay above $2,000 in [the Russell 2000 ]." BTC.CM= .RUT 6M mountain Bitcoin and Russell 2000 Bitcoin has been meandering in the $60,000 level since the beginning of March. All of the major stock indexes are down for the month, and the small-cap Russell 2000 is tracking for a deeper loss of about 6%.
Persons: Bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Russell, Ginsberg, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve
Here's why Thursday's post-GDP sell-off may be overdone
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Stocks sold off Thursday aHoweverfter the latest economic data came in weaker than expected, but some observers say that the reaction was overdone. While the headline GDP number missed expectations, it nevertheless showed economic growth the Fed could take in stride, they say. He noted that the core parts of GDP, such as consumption growth and residential growth, were "quite good." "Stagflation is a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation," Nick continued. "I think the earnings backdrop has been very supportive," Lee told CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Thursday.
Persons: Stocks, Dow Jones, Chris Zaccarelli, Brian Nick, Nick, we're, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, Treasury, Macro, Wolfe Research Locations: U.S
Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients Wednesday that the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) looks attractive after a long period of underperforming the broader market. "Now that we're past much of the big bank earnings, there are a number of fintech and financial service names on the docket this week and next. FINX 5Y mountain The FINX ETF has shown early signs of a rebound in 2024. Ginsberg wrote that the ETF has some positive technical signals of its own. To be sure, earnings reports could prove to be a downside catalyst for financial technology stocks and the fund.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: titans, Wolfe Research, Paypal Locations: Fintech, FINX
The stock market is poised for a short-term bounce, but technical analysts who watch price charts warn that the correction is not yet over. The technician said he anticipates support for stocks — the point at which buyers will reemerge — between 4,700-4,800 in the S & P 500. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 To be sure, some observers anticipate a more durable stock market rally, rather than a mere bounce. He anticipates that the S & P 500 could find support down at 4,800 and may not find a true bottom for several weeks. But he anticipates that the selloff will take longer to play out, with a pullback bringing the S & P 500 back to 4,700.
Persons: JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, O'Hara, Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, we've, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Wolfe's Rob Ginsberg Organizations: Stocks, Federal Reserve
How the corporate America is handling sticky inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates will be top of mind for investors in the week ahead, after this week's choppy moves. The first-quarter earnings season, which kicked off Friday, will give Wall Street insight into how businesses expect to weather an environment of elevated interest rates. More macro data, such as U.S. retail sales, will give insight into how the consumer is handling higher pricing pressures. First-quarter earnings season underway The corporate earnings season kicks into high gear in the week ahead. This week, the small cap Russell 2000 is on track for a losing week, down by more than 1%.
Persons: Bob Doll, CNBC's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet, Robert Haworth, Haworth, Charles Schwab, Johnson, D.R, KeyCorp Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Exxon Mobil, Costco, Apple, Crossmark, Investments, Investors, Bank of America, Consumer, U.S . Bank, Index, Retail, T Bank, Housing, Manufacturing, Hunt Transport Services, United Airlines, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, UnitedHealth Group, Northern Trust, CSX, Discover Financial Services, Prologis, U.S . Bancorp, Philadelphia Fed, American Express, Procter, Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Schlumberger Locations: America, China, NAHB, Vegas Sands, U.S, Horton
Investors had lately been hoping the Fed might start easing back on policy starting in June, with three rate cuts penciled in for the year. But a robust labor market, as reflected in last week's March payrolls, and this latest consumer inflation data have pushed back that view. Markets now anticipate the first cut might come in September, with just two quarter-point reductions for the whole year. Even so, investors anticipate that markets may be able to take fewer rate cuts in stride so long as the Fed isn't actually forced to raise rates. Varghese still leans toward equities, expecting as many as three rate cuts this year, though he anticipates the first cut might not come until July now.
Persons: Federal Reserve doesn't, Stocks, isn't, Ayako Yoshioka, Yoshioka, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, Powell, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Carson Group, CPI
The energy sector has pulled up from behind to overtake nearly every other sector of the market this year and may still have room to advance, according to analysts. The energy sector has gotten a lift as crude oil prices are on a tear this year after plummeting in the last quarter of 2023. The refiners Marathon Petroleum , Phillips 66 and Valero also hit all-time highs on Friday. Diamondback Energy is trading at all-time highs Monday dating back to its IPO in October 2012, while ConocoPhillips is at levels that have not been seen since November 2022. "We think it's a theme that has more to go as well," Ginsberg said of the energy sector rally.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, it's, Rob Ginsberg, Brent, Iran teeter, Ginsberg, Valero Organizations: Energy, BTIG, Exxon Mobil, Wolfe Research, Fund, JPMorgan, OPEC, refiners, Petroleum, Phillips, Diamondback Energy, ConocoPhillips Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Occidental
Gold has a chance to charge ahead of bitcoin as the flagship cryptocurrency hovers around the $70,000 level, according to Wolfe Research. However, bitcoin has also been mirroring its own moves from 2021, when the cryptocurrency rocketed twice to all-time highs, just before a deep pullback. "The gold vs. bitcoin ratio is nearing support while oversold on a weekly basis," said Ginsberg. "If our feeling on bitcoin is correct, and it continues to consolidate in this $60,000–$73,000 region, it may provide a good opportunity for gold to start outperforming." It has since returned to its highs and looks ready to reaccelerate, Ginsberg said, although selling pressure "has historically come on strong above $70,000."
Persons: bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research Locations: bitcoin, U.S
Super Micro Computer has gone too far and investors need to step away for now, according to Wolfe Research. But Wolfe strategist Rob Ginsberg thinks it's time to book some profits on the stock as it reaches deeply overbought territory. "The Poster Child of the Momentum Factor, the Stock is Now 300% Above Its 200-Day and its RSI Recently Hit an Eye Opening 97," he wrote. RSI refers to relative strength index, a widely followed momentum metric that gauges overbought and oversold conditions. Ginsberg said he would "Fade Strength into [the] S & P Rebalancing," which will take place Monday.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, it's, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research, Factor, RSI
So-called Magnificent Seven stocks Apple , Alphabet and Tesla may no longer be living up to that title, according to Wolfe Research. "It's really more like the Mag 4 or Fab 4 these days," Wolfe Research managing director Rob Ginsberg wrote Monday. " The meteoric rise of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks — Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — lifted the S & P 500 to a 24.2% gain in 2023. But Ginsberg said Apple, Alphabet and Tesla are ripe for exclusion from the Magnificent Seven. AAPL YTD mountain Apple shares in 2024 Apple shares have slipped roughly 10% from their December 2023 high, Ginsberg said, and they are off by about 6% in 2024.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Evelyn, Ginsberg, Tesla Organizations: Wolfe Research, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Evelyn Partners, Dow, Apple
Bitcoin broke through $50,000 to start the week and although a stubbornly high inflation reading has pulled it lower since, the cryptocurrency is still in safe territory, according to chart analysts. On Monday, the cryptocurrency finished above $50,000 – at one point rising to $50,334.00, its highest level since December 2021. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin year-to-date Other chart analysts echoed that investors need not be too concerned about a significant decline from here. "Old resistance becomes support and that $46,000 to $48,000 can then become the jumping board for a continuation of the rally." Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies agreed the bitcoin chart supports "a long-term bullish bias."
Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Julius de Kempenaer, De Kempenaer, Katie Stockton, it'll, Stockton Organizations: CNBC, Fairlead Locations: overbought
Bitcoin investors have high hopes for 2024 given the cryptocurrency's almost too-good-to-be-true setup , but they may have to wait a few weeks more for its next big ascent, according to Wolfe Research. BTC.CM= 1M mountain Bitcoin ended the month of January flat and is poised for more weakness, says Wolfe Research. "A breakout does not look likely in the near term. "Solana and other altcoins have come on strong in recent months and likely continue that outperformance near term." Ginsberg said the tokens tied to Cardano and Avalanche are also set to rise in the near term, and Chainlink could be poised for a breakout.
Persons: bitcoin, Wolfe, it's, Rob Ginsberg, Solana, Ginsberg, We're, they're, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Solana, Securities and Exchange Commission, Avalanche Locations: U.S, bitcoin
Several chart analysts are worried stocks are showing signs of exhaustion after their recent rally. Even there, however, we started to see some cracks last week as upside exhaustion also showed itself," Krinsky added. JC O'Hara, chief market technician at Roth MKM, wrote: "This persistence of gains is rare, and we are seeing signs that leadership is feeling exhaustion." However, when we view the chart, we find early signs of bullish exhaustion," O'Hara wrote. "From a trading basis, lethargic internal behavior suggests the bull cycle is due for a breather," Wald wrote on Saturday.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, O'Hara, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, SMH, that's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Russell, Wald Organizations: Reserve, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Bears, Wolfe Research, VanEck Semiconductor
Semiconductor stocks are in the trenches of overbought territory. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro looked looked into the SMH to see which individual chipmakers were also overbought. Nvidia is the most overbought stock on the list with a 14-day RSI reading of 83.91. Broadcom also made the overbought list with a 14-day RSI reading of 71.71. Other chip stocks on the overbought list include sector heavyweight Taiwan Semiconductor and AMD .
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, It's, Nvidia's Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Wolfe Research, CNBC, Nvidia, FactSet, Broadcom, Citi, VMware, Taiwan Semiconductor, AMD Locations: U.S
Nvidia looks poised for a pullback after its strong start to 2024, according to Wolfe Research. When the stock market opened Monday, Nvidia reached Wolfe's recent target of $600 a share, leaving it "now deeply overbought and due for a consolidation," said Rob Ginsberg, Wolfe's technical analyst, in a note to clients. The RSI measures the magnitude and speed of price movements, with any figure over 70 signaling that a stock is overbought and potentially ripe for selling. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia shares have gained nearly 20% this year If Nvidia is vulnerable to a pullback, it's far from alone, according to Ginsberg. Wolfe is not inclined "to chase vertical moves," and at such times would rather harvest some gains, the analyst wrote.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Wolfe, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Wolfe Research, Devices, Dow Jones, Micro Computer
The S & P 500 finally surpassed its prior all-time high from January 2022 on Friday, confirming the start of a new bull market that began in October 2022. But while the market continued to build on those gains early Monday, some technical analysts are worried that cracks are beginning to show in the broad market index. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 in the last 12 months BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky forecasts a pullback for the S & P 500 before it reaches the key 5,000 level, or just around 3.5% above current prices. Around 73% of the S & P 500 is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, down from more than 90% in late December, according to David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. "New index highs lead to fatigue," said Roth Capital Partners chief market technician JC O'Hara.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, David Keller, JC O'Hara, O'Hara, There's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, pullbacks, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Downside, Capital Partners Locations: Japan, Brazil, India, U.S, China, Europe
Bitcoin has been struggling since the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds and may continue to for some time, according to Wolfe Research. But much like it responded previously at the top of this trading range, we expect consolidation and decline to follow, which is why we would recommend taking some profit at these levels." "Bitcoin is at the top of its trading range," he added. An RSI reading of 70 and higher indicates that an asset is overbought, while a reading of 30 suggests it's oversold. Ginsberg added that bitcoin is overbought on a long-term weekly basis too, a condition that the cryptocurrency has seen only twice before.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe's Rob Ginsberg, it's oversold, Ginsberg, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Investors Locations: U.S
Many investors and analysts have expressed confidence that bitcoin can reach and even surpass its all-time high level of $69,000. BTC.CM= 1Y line Bitcoin's 1-year performance per Coin Metrics He said $40,000, a level bitcoin hasn't seen since early December, would be another potential stopping point. Julius de Kempenaer, a senior technical analyst at StockCharts.com, is watching a slightly higher support level at $45,000. "While bitcoin's price is coming off a new cycle high, RSI made a lower high and was unable to get above the 70 level," Wald said. Bitcoin reached its all-time high near $69,000 in November 2021.
Persons: bitcoin, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Bitcoin, Julius de Kempenaer, Wald, it's oversold, de Kempenaer, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: U.S, CNBC, Metrics, RSI Locations: Wald
Stock market gains over the past six weeks have been so rapid, one technical indicator suggests a pullback may be ahead. Stocks in the S & P 500 have reached a level of overbought condition that has preceded past pullbacks, according to Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg. The S & P 500 is up 24% off its low for the year, including 9% this quarter alone. The stock market has fallen an average of 3.6% one month later roughly 60% of the time when this overbought indicator has been reached, according to Wolfe. The last time 30% or more of the stocks in the S & P 500 were overbought was in 2022.
Persons: Stocks, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Wolfe, overbought, Kraft Heinz, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Boeing, Kraft, CNBC Pro
Investors are watching the S & P 500 after it rallied back toward the key 4,600 level to see if it can break out to new all-time highs. A record high in the S & P 500 looks promising after the broader index on Friday closed at 4,594.63, or its best level since March 2022. In July, the last time the S & P 500 tested the threshold, the rally was led by mega-cap tech stocks. On Monday, the market rally took a breather; the S & P 500 ended the session lower by 0.5%, and it stood about 5% below its record. In fact, one market technician on Monday said the S & P 500 could plunge back to its bear market lows in 2024.
Persons: Stocks, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, you've, JPMorgan's, Jason Hunter, Hunter, CNBC's, Adam Turnquist, he's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Lululemon, O'Hara, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Broadcom Locations: oversold
Bitcoin's price may be due for one more pullback in the coming weeks and that could be a good opportunity to buy more of the cryptocurrency before its next leg up, according to Wolfe Research. "[Bitcoin] now sits within reach of having retraced 50% of the decline off its highs," Ginsberg wrote in a note last week. However … near term price action may provide for one more buying opportunity before continuing higher." BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin (BTC) now has retraced nearly 50% of the decline off its 2021 all-time high. "We would use it as a buying opportunity as the next move higher likely takes price above $40,000."
Persons: bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC, Metrics Locations: U.S
Wall Street is set to wrap up a strong month next week as stocks gun for new highs heading into year end. The Nasdaq Composite is on pace to close out the month with a double-digit advance, up 10%. In contrast to September and October, which are typically weak periods for stocks, the seasonal patterns are now in favor of equities. This week, LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist pointed out that more than half, or 55%, of S & P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving average. It's set to show a rise of 0.2%, down from the 0.7% rise in the prior month, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, That's, CFRA's Stovall, What's, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Morningstar's Dave Sekera, Sekera, Morningstar's Sekera, Salesforce, Gartner Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank, Treasury, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, New, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Intuit, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, PMI, Manufacturing, Dominion Energy, Cboe, Cardinal Health Locations: Chicago
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